TCEC Season 10, Stage 2, Game 100 speculation simulation

Output from BayesElo program

Rank	Player name	Points	EPoints	StdDev	ERank	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	Komodo 1937.00/1959.00	17.0	18.90	0.73	1.41	64	30	5	0	0	0	0
2	Houdini 6.02	17.0	18.49	0.74	1.80	33	55	12	0	0	0	0
3	Stockfish 041017/051117	15.0	17.20	0.85	2.82	3	14	79	3	0	0	0
4	Fire 6.1/6.2	13.5	15.01	0.74	3.97	0	0	3	97	0	0	0
5	Chiron 040917/251017	9.5	10.96	0.75	6.01	0	0	0	0	40	28	22
6	Ginkgo 2/2.01	9.5	10.81	0.74	6.22	0	0	0	0	31	28	27
7	Booot 6.2	9.0	10.63	0.85	6.51	0	0	0	0	21	29	29
8	Andscacs 0.92/0.921	8.5	10.01	0.75	7.26	0	0	0	0	8	14	22

Situation before game, simulation about most common position

100k simulations, sorted by who has most 1., then who has most >=2., then most >=3., etc.. Columns 1.-8. are how often it ended in simulation at that position.

Pos	Name		>=2	>=6		1.	2.	3.	4.	5.	6.	7.	8.
1.	Komodo 1959.00		89.7080%	100.0000%		55.596%	34.112%	10.292%
2.	Houdini 6.02		81.2660%	100.0000%		36.693%	44.573%	18.734%
3.	Stockfish 051117		29.0260%	100.0000%		7.711%	21.315%	67.987%	2.987%
4.	Fire 6.2			100.0000%				2.987%	97.013%
5.	Chiron 251017			73.6570%						45.916%	27.741%	19.061%	7.282%
6.	Ginkgo 2.01			63.1960%						31.656%	31.540%	26.036%	10.768%
7.	Booot 6.2			42.7770%						16.003%	26.774%	30.372%	26.851%
8.	Andscacs 0.921			20.3700%						6.425%	13.945%	24.531%	55.099%

Speculate Stockfish 051117 - Booot 6.2 1-0

Pos	Name		>=2	>=6		1.	2.	3.	4.	5.	6.	7.	8.
1.	Komodo 1959.00		86.4430%	100.0000%		53.767%	32.676%	13.557%
2.	Houdini 6.02		75.4380%	100.0000%		35.149%	40.289%	24.562%
3.	Stockfish 051117		38.1190%	100.0000%		11.084%	27.035%	60.955%	0.926%
4.	Fire 6.2			100.0000%				0.926%	99.074%
5.	Chiron 251017			77.8200%						50.638%	27.182%	16.482%	5.698%
6.	Ginkgo 2.01			68.9790%						34.375%	34.604%	22.441%	8.580%
7.	Booot 6.2			29.6710%						7.784%	21.887%	34.050%	36.279%
8.	Andscacs 0.921			23.5300%						7.203%	16.327%	27.027%	49.443%

Speculate Stockfish 051117 - Booot 6.2 1/2-1/2

Pos	Name		>=2	>=6		1.	2.	3.	4.	5.	6.	7.	8.
1.	Komodo 1959.00		92.7360%	100.0000%		57.996%	34.740%	7.264%
2.	Houdini 6.02		85.5710%	100.0000%		37.738%	47.833%	14.429%
3.	Stockfish 051117		21.6930%	100.0000%		4.266%	17.427%	74.960%	3.347%
4.	Fire 6.2			100.0000%				3.347%	96.653%
5.	Chiron 251017			70.9770%						43.851%	27.126%	20.581%	8.442%
6.	Ginkgo 2.01			59.4830%						30.569%	28.914%	27.781%	12.736%
7.	Booot 6.2			51.5250%						19.605%	31.920%	30.036%	18.439%
8.	Andscacs 0.921			18.0150%						5.975%	12.040%	21.602%	60.383%

Speculate Stockfish 051117 - Booot 6.2 0-1

Pos	Name		>=2	>=6		1.	2.	3.	4.	5.	6.	7.	8.
1.	Komodo 1959.00		96.6680%	100.0000%		59.607%	37.061%	3.332%
2.	Houdini 6.02		92.6060%	100.0000%		39.216%	53.390%	7.394%
3.	Stockfish 051117		10.7260%	100.0000%		1.177%	9.549%	80.253%	9.021%
4.	Fire 6.2			100.0000%				9.021%	90.979%
5.	Booot 6.2			73.0080%						37.605%	35.403%	20.496%	6.496%
6.	Chiron 251017			63.7150%						33.712%	30.003%	25.626%	10.659%
7.	Ginkgo 2.01			50.5050%						24.368%	26.137%	34.084%	15.411%
8.	Andscacs 0.921			12.7720%						4.315%	8.457%	19.794%	67.434%

Expected start time based on estimate of 2.84h/game

Note that previous game can end 1-2h faster than predicted and later in the list even more uncertain.

UTC	No	White	Black
2017-11-18 19:23	101	Komodo 1959.00	Stockfish 051117
2017-11-18 22:13	102	Booot 6.2	Houdini 6.02
2017-11-19 01:03	103	Chiron 251017	Fire 6.2
2017-11-19 03:53	104	Ginkgo 2.01	Andscacs 0.921
2017-11-19 06:43	105	Ginkgo 2.01	Komodo 1959.00
2017-11-19 09:33	106	Andscacs 0.921	Chiron 251017
2017-11-19 12:23	107	Fire 6.2	Booot 6.2
2017-11-19 15:13	108	Houdini 6.02	Stockfish 051117
2017-11-19 18:03	109	Komodo 1959.00	Houdini 6.02
2017-11-19 20:54	110	Stockfish 051117	Fire 6.2
2017-11-19 23:44	111	Booot 6.2	Andscacs 0.921
2017-11-20 02:34	112	Chiron 251017	Ginkgo 2.01